Time to deal with the elephant on the sofa: Are we headed toward civil war between the progressives and conservatives? There are very smart people, for example, Ray Dalio, highly renowned hedge fund manager of Bridgewater Associates. He thinks the chances exceed 50%.
I don’t know? My Walmart crystal ball isn’t that good. Which is why this MAGA discussion in in blog form rather than an essay. The first two starter blogs are didactic, bit it’s all conjecture, opinion, or a coin toss from here. I will express my opinion, and solicit your opinions in the comments section. But I preface my opinion with an important source that will shape my view on whether civil war is imminent.
According to Neil Howe, we are in a current Fourth Turning. His current book, “The Fourth Turning is Here,” explains his work detailing the cyclical repetitions of generational social patterns. In short he outlines how since the fifteenth century all human societies have behavioral cycles of four generations every 80-95 years. The four turnings of each cycle include a Crises (4th turning) in which the social structure is irrevocably changed. Following the crisis generation is a cohesive High (1st turning) of twenty plus years where cultures advance with little conflict. The 2nd turning is called Awakening where current values and structures are challenged by the coming of age generation. The next generation is lost or nomadic during an Unraveling (3rd turning) where the previous structure of the High is dissolved and a new social structure awaits resolution after the next crisis.
Our current cycle began with the 4th Turning of the Great Depression and World War II after which the American culture homogenized into union manufacturing, a baby boom associated with families and sprawling suburbia, corporate jobs, and a monolithic Ozzie and Harriet culture. As the next generation (baby boomers) reached adulthood they questioned the values of the 50’s, racial segregation, and the Vietnam war, women’s oppression, etc. This was the 2nd Turning or Awakening. The resurgence of conservatism occurred along with decreasing liberalism during the Reagan/Bush/Clinton years, the Unraveling (the 3rd Turning). The 4th Turning (according to Howe) began with the financial crisis of 2007 and now runs through about 2034 until the currently expected crisis vaults us in the next cohesive societal phase.
In North America the 1670-1690 Crisis involved establishing an English colony of social structure in New England through genocide of native tribes along with expulsion of the Dutch to the southwest into New York and Pennsylvania. The French and natives were pushed north and west to Canada and the Midwest. One cycle later (80+ years into 1770’s) came the Revolutionary War, which changed the social structure from colonialism to independence of white male inhabitants. Fast forward 80+ years to 1860 and slavery was deprogrammed during the U.S. Civil War. Cycle again 70-85 years (1930s-1940s) we experience the next crisis/4th Turning of the Great Depression and World War II. Today we are 80 years hence and the next crisis is imminent.
So the answer to the question if Civil War II is imminent, is still maybe! The better question is what is the next culture changing event which will irrevocably alter our social structure? The list of imaginable outcomes is quite lengthy and includes, widespread nuclear war, World War III, post meteorite apocalypse, financial implosion, famine, pandemic, civil war, climate catastrophe, terrorism with destruction of energy, water, or food resources, autocratic annihilation of the U.S. government, etc…. Who knows?
My opinion follows; and again I’d love to read yours. In the current election cycle the polarization between the Trump-MAGA coalition and the progressives is unlikely to change and very likely to intensify. Should Trump win, especially with majorities Congress, the likelihood of massive street demonstrations will occur. If the police and military side with repressing the demonstration, then an authoritarian takeover of the U.S. government can ensue. This is a scary real possibility as the current Supreme Court might argue that Constitution makes the president commander of the military and says nothing about an oath to the Constitution.
A recent film, Civil War, was an artistic attempt to predict a violent and organized scenario. Should the progressives win at the polls, the MAGA groups will attempt more violent takeovers and a guerilla type civil war of the movie type could follow. If the Harris/progressive margin is high enough civil war is less likely, and the next crisis would likely be fiscal or international.
My intuitive sense (with no objective supporting data) is that the generational crisis is less likely to be a repeat of the civil war of 1860 and more so a repeat of 1930-1945. The of possibility an international monetary/fiscal market collapse/depression is high. The food supply is currently being disrupted by the Ukraine war decreasing wheat supplies to northern Africa. Climate changes of rain drenched fields, drought areas, over-fished oceans, and excessive heat are threatening food supplies particularly to Africa and island communities.
Supply lines of food. manufactured goods, and energy are being sabotaged by pirates and hostile armies. Multi-national banks/governments have issued trillions of dollars in printed money without backing that is driving international inflation. For example during the COVID pandemic trillions were given to our population. The lower strata spent the allotments for daily living, but wealthier persons used the money to drive up asset and housing prices, all of which could crumble in short order.
Starving populations make for immigration crises. Refugees can also come from areas that become inhabitable. Should California rivers dry up and water become unavailable, home values would plummet and people would become climate refugees. My daughter’s family in San Francisco would likely most east to live with us. We already have a refugee crisis in the U.S. from hostile areas of central America.
So imagine a worldwide crisis of food, energy, and savings shortages. Authoritarian leaders will scapegoat other countries for their hardships and push for war. Hungry people will readily join the war efforts and World War III will commence.
What happens then? It depends upon who wins the war. There are so many possibilities. Entire nations could be wiped off the map, global economies could collapse, and new powers might emerge from the ashes. The environmental impact could be catastrophic, with nuclear fallout and devastated ecosystems. Human suffering would reach unprecedented levels as refugees flood across borders and diseases spread unchecked. Let our readers know what you think in the comments section. Thanks, Greg
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